View source for Chapter Two: Project Planning

<big>'''Chapter Two: Project Planning'''</big>
Arguably, planning of water supply projects is considered to be one of the most important stages in the design. Thus, it is strongly advised and emphasized that much time should be spent to undertake proper project planning. A proper project planning will ensure effective and efficient completion of the project successfully. In this chapter, project planning is presented in seven parts that are detailed below. These include:

* Planning considerations for water supply projects
* Project Planning steps
* Consulting the Integrated Water Resources Management and Development Plan
* Consult guideline for preparation of Water Safety Plan – resilient to climate change.
* Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and Strategic Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (SESIA) Compliance
* Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply Projects
* Participation of CBWSOs in Project Planning Stages

=Chapter Two: Project Planning=


==2.1	Planning Considerations for Water Supply Projects ==
Before commencement of any development of a water project, it is essential to conduct project planning. Planning is a process that should entail the following:
•	Undertake ESIA and SESIA studies,
•	Engagement and involvement of the local community to instill the ownership, provide the local knowledge, project buy in and accommodate community needs and requirements,
•	Assess safe and reliable yield or discharge and quality of water source,
•	Determination of the system layout,
•	Conduct design of the water supply project,
•	Implement the project in terms of construction, operation and maintenance,
•	Work out to obtain a sound and robust project financing.

It should be emphasized and stressed that collection of good quality, reliable, credible and enough data should be given high priority at all stages of project implementation. Population projection methods and their relevance for rural and urban settings or areas as recommended by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have to be evaluated. Demographic features such as social and economic conditions have to be studied before design projections can be established. Also, water source reliability should be carried out before any further stage of project implementation.
==2.2	Project Planning Steps==
Project planning involves a series of steps that determine how project goals will be achieved. The goals may be solicited from the existing community or a strategic plan. In an event that there is not any plan, project plans can be developed through community meetings and gatherings, councils or board meetings, special focused group discussions or other planning processes. 

The main steps of project planning include:
* Step 1: Initiation
* Step 2: Pre-feasibility study
* Step 3: Feasibility study
* Step 4: Preliminary and Detailed Design
* Step 5: Project phasing
* Step 6: Procurement
* Step 7: Implementation/Construction
* Step 8: Operation and Maintenance (Management)
* Step 9: Performance Monitoring

The planning of water supply projects can be represented diagrammatically by a step wise planning cycle as shown in Figure 2.1.

==2.3	Pump Protection==
The following sections provide a brief description of each of the twelve project planning steps.

===2.3.1	Initiation===
Initiation or sometimes referred to as triggering stage, is a step where initial ideas of the project are presented. Community mobilization through awareness raising is conducted at this stage. The whole idea is to inform the community on the start of the project, solicit community input and knowledge about the project area. Project common understanding is also expected to be realized at this step. 

The outcome of this stage of planning is to acquire an understanding of the community conditions and identify problems that prevent the community from achieving its long-range goals. Community conditions which must be collected includes aspects of the community such as: 
* Its geographic location, 
* Demographics, 
* Ecosystem, 
* History,e.t.c

The data collection for the above information should employ community assessment methods.

[[File:Volume I Figure 2.1 Projects Planning Process.png|thumb|Figure 2.1: Projects Planning Process]]

(Source: Modified after Design Manual 3rd edition, 2009)
 
====2.3.1.1	Community Assessment Steps====
* Identify specific community problems that stand in the way of meeting community goals. Produce a community problem statement,
* Creates a work plan for addressing problems and attaining the goals, 
* Describe measurable beneficial impacts to the community that result from the project’s implementation, 
* Determine the level of resources or funding necessary to implement the project.
* Solicit community social economic assessment report from Local Government Authorities for use in choice of technology to achieve project sustainability

====2.3.1.2	 Methods of conducting community assessment====
Two methods can be employed for conducting community assessment. They are comprehensive and strategic planning.

=====2.3.1.2.1	Comprehensive community assessment=====
This process should involve:
* Completing a community-wide needs assessment to engage the community in identifying and prioritizing all long-range goals and the community problems preventing the achievement of those goals, 
* Next, the community is involved in the process of developing a method to accomplish long-range goals,  
* Discussing initial ways to overcome the problems 
* Develop measures to monitor progress towards achieving those goals. 

Comprehensive plans require at least a year to complete and should cover a five- to ten-year time span. 

======2.3.1.2.2	Strategic community assessment======
This is a process used when a community or an organization already has a comprehensive plan and wants to move forward to achieve its long-range goals. Strategic planning involves:
Participation of the community in identifying problems that stand between the community and its goals and to move the community towards realizing its long-range vision. 

The product of strategic planning, simply called the “strategic plan,” builds on pre-established long-range goals by designing projects related to one or more of these goals. A strategic plan generally takes at least six months to complete.

===2.3.2	Pre-feasibility Study===
The pre-feasibility study stage involves initial fieldwork and studies of alternative water resource development plans. The report issued is an outline of possibilities and a list of all the fieldwork activities that need to be accomplished at a feasibility study or even a preliminary engineering design stage.

The objective of this initial study is to determine whether it is worthwhile to proceed with more detailed investigations. In other words at this stage, various projects or alternatives are screened and this should normally reduce the number of options considered feasible to no more than three or so. The report should, however, contain recommendations on the proposed project and how to proceed with the detailed investigations.

These should include indications on the following:

* Data to be collected,
* Remaining alternatives to be considered and investigated,
* Professional human resources required,
* Estimate of time that will be taken or needed,
* Budgetary financial requirements.

The above are considered taking into account:

* Long term needs,
* Deficiencies in the existing system (if any),
* Phases of project implementation.

Briefly, the pre-feasibility report should give an outline of the future development, which seems most appropriate to provide the project area with water in the long term. The other major aim may be to select a short-term project that may be implemented to overcome any immediate needs (crash programme) while the long-term project is being prepared. 

===2.3.3	Feasibility Study===
The feasibility study stage develops the pre-feasibility work further and ends with a Report which normally concentrates on the project alternatives that were recommended for more detailed consideration at the pre-feasibility stage.

The study has to be carried out by a team of competent and experienced personnel from the Ministry, RUWASA and WWSA or with the help of a private sector. At this stage, the following should be achieved:

* Collection of sufficient design data,
* Appraise the alternatives,
* Alternative plans (projects) adequately studied and evaluated,
* Socio-economic analysis adequately conducted and completed
* Solicit the views and preferences with community in an open meeting
* Discuss the merits and demerits with community representatives
* Rank alternatives on the basis of appropriate costing method and perceived ability of community to afford the costs of operation and maintenance and reach agreement in principle with concerned water officials.
* Inform the community reasons for selection of the alternative(s) and seek their agreement and approval.
* Conduct Environmental Impact assessment (EIA). For larger projects a statement on Life Cycle Assessment should be included indicating the extent of quantitative and other relevant information currently available,
* Preliminary engineering design done, including a review of alternative materials,
* Preliminary cost estimates done,
* Economic internal rate of return and financial internal rate of return,
* Carry out design to a level sufficient to enable construction to proceed either using local (District) based contractors or a Force Account approach using local sub-contractors as considered feasible and appropriate,
* Most feasible project (least cost) selected, 
* Feasibility report prepared and presented to the authorities for approval

The report may also include interim progress reports, appendices of data collected during the detailed study. The feasibility report should be presented as a supporting document to apply for financing from the financing agencies.
====2.3.3.1	 Water Supply Projects Ranking and Technology Selection Criteria====
=====2.3.3.1.1	Ranking of Projects=====
Projects to be implemented should be ranked on the basis of the following criteria;
* Type of technology,
* Quantity of water,
* ESIA Report comments,
* Negative environment impact,
* Quality of water available,
* Cost/benefit analysis, 
* Walking distance scheme complexity.

=====2.3.3.1.2	Choice of Technology=====
As far as possible ranking of project selection is concerned, technology choice should be based on progressive consideration of:
* Hand pump(s) from proven permanent deep hand dug well(s) or shallow borehole(s),
* Gravity scheme from protected spring,
* Medium or deep well with appropriate hand pump (rotary type),
* Pumped / Piped Scheme Electrical Driven,
* Pumped/Piped Scheme Solar Driven.

For point water sources or simple distribution systems, a prime location for a domestic point should be the village primary school followed by a village health facility (if any). Provision of improved sanitation and hand washing facilities at both primary school and health facility should also receive priority consideration in any village scheme. Use the relevant WASH guidelines for design of the washing facilities.

===2.3.4	Preliminary and Detailed Design===
After the feasibility report is presented and approved, the preliminary and the preferred alternative should be selected and the finances sought. The following should be considered while conducting the design:
* The Engineer should prepare the preliminary engineering design and then the detailed or final project report,  
* These reports should provide the basis for implementation,  
* The initial report has to provide the design basics which are then developed further in the detailed design of the project including working drawings and tender documents,  
* They should however include a review of all relevant aspects of this DCOM Manual and either accept or otherwise indicate, complete with detailed reasoning, why different criteria is proposed. 

In addition, the report should address the following:
* The issue of costing being adopted and requirement for extent of whole life cycle analysis and adaptation of costing,  
* Consideration of the environmental impacts of the project and its envisaged elements,  
* Issue of climate change and its possible effects on the project being designed. 

It should be noted that the conceptual designs provided at the feasibility study or preliminary engineering stages are generally inadequate for the construction of the project. Foremost, the Engineer arranges for any outstanding detailed field investigations, surveys and data collection. Based on the detailed field data collected; detailed designs, plans and estimates are prepared.

Detailed designs should include:
* Statistical analysis of data collected for the population and demand projections; hydrological ,hydrogeological  and meteorological data,
* Least cost lay-outs for different components of the project, i.e. treatment plants, hydraulic and structural works,
* Structural and stability computations of different structures,
* Calculations for pumps, motors, power generators and other machinery and equipment,
* Engineering analysis for deciding the most economic size of delivery mains.
* Hydraulic computations for the distribution system,
* Bills of quantities.
* Detailed design should include the following:

====2.3.4.1	Detailed Engineering Drawings====
These should include:

* Index plan showing overall layout of the project,
* Schematic diagram showing levels of salient components of the project (may not necessarily be to scale),
* Detailed plans and sections in scale for the headwords, treatment plants, clear water storage tank, pumping station, in a scale 1:20 to 1:100 depending on the details and size of the works,
* Detailed structural plans for structures, intake, treatment plant, clear water reservoir etc., in a scale of 1:20,
* Index plan of the distribution system normally in an appropriate scale,
* Longitudinal sections of the delivery main and details of appurtenances in scales: Horizontal scale 1:500 to 1:5000 depending on distance and details Vertical scale 1:20 to 1:100 depending on the terrain surface undulations.

====2.3.4.2		Detailed estimates of capital costs====
Project cost estimates should be based on unit costs derived from recent projects of a similar magnitude, complexity and remoteness from or proximity to ports or major urban areas.

====2.3.4.3	 Detailed estimates of recurrent costs====
As far as possible this should be based on unit costs provided by the operating authority or from schemes of a similar size and nature.

====2.3.4.4	 Anticipated revenue====
These should be based on the recommendations made regarding tariff structures or provided by the operating authority or regulator.

====2.3.4.5	 Detailed design report====
A report should accompany the detailed designs, plans and estimates elaborating on the:
* Engineering aspects,
* Financial aspects,
* Administrative aspects, 
* Tender documents 
* Specifications.

====2.3.4.6	 Project write-up to be submitted to potential financiers====
Each Development Partner may have a different pattern of project presentation for financial request. The project document should therefore follow more guidelines as indicated by the financiers or the local funding sources where applicable.

====2.3.5	Project Phasing====
Sometimes the implementation of a project is carried out in phases due to among other things, the following reasons:
* Financial resources available,
* Opportunity cost of money,
* Economies of scale,
* Growth rate in the area,
* Rate of development in the area,
* The design (working) life of various installations,
* Development in levels of service,
* New technology or method that needs piloting before rolling it out
Once the basic design period is decided (usually between 10 and 20 years) and water demand is computed for different years, the different elements can be phased. Exceptions do occur where financial assistance capital is being used and there is fear or a probability that further trunches will not be available just a few years later.

Generally, phasing should be undertaken as follows: 
(i)	Dams, river and spring intakes, should be implemented in a single phase to cover all of the ultimate design demand or the hydrologically calculated water availability. This is particularly significant for dams as flood spillways form an expensive integral part and the need to raise a spillway inlet and deal with the additional energy at its exit is usually very costly.
(ii)	Boreholes to be constructed in Multiple Phases according to the growth in demand.
(iii)	Treatment plants and storage tanks to be constructed stepwise or in phases, according to the projected growth in demand.
(iv)	Mechanical installations to be implemented in Multiple Phases according to the design life of the equipment.
(v)	Pump houses constructed in a Single Phase with space for additional mechanical plant.
(vi)	Rising mains and main conduits between units to be constructed to cover the ultimate demand in a single Phase.
(vii)	Long transmission mains to be constructed as two parallel lines in a single Phase where funds allow or in Two Phases where not. It can be advantageous to dedicate one of two parallel transmission mains to supplying water to the terminal reservoir whilst using the second for a mix of local distribution (daytime) and conveyance to the terminal reservoir (night time).
(viii)	Distribution systems to be constructed according to the growth in development in Multiple Phases.

===2.3.6	Procurement===
====2.3.6.1	Preparation of Tender Documents====
The Procurement Management Unit (PMU) using the approved templates as guided by PPRA documentation undertakes preparation of tender documents. In preparing the tender documents undertaken by PMU, unit rate contract is normally adopted for project components such as intake, delivery mains, distribution system, storage tanks and other appurtenances. For specialized areas like the treatment plants and pumping stations it may be necessary to prepare separate tenders for the supply and installation of such facilities. The superstructure may still be included in the main contract bill of quantities. As much as possible one contract is preferred. The suppliers of such specialized equipment would then be included as sub-contractors of the main contractor. Important documents included in contract documents includes:
* Letter of Invitation to Tender 
* Instruction to Tenderers 
* General Conditions of Contract
* Special Conditions of Contract
* Drawings 
* Specifications 
* Bills of Quantities
* Tender Forms
* Security Forms 
* Anti-bribery Pledge
* Schedule of Additional Information
* Information Data

====2.3.6.2	Tendering process====
This process involves use of public procurement act to select service providers as detailed in following steps; 
* Issue of tender documents
* Submission and receipt of tenders
* Opening of tenders
* Evaluation of tenders
* Award of tender
* Signing of contract agreement

===2.3.7	Implementation/Construction Stage===
Construction stage includes contract management, Contract supervision and administration.
====2.3.7.1	Contract Management====
Contract management entails the following;
* Contract Management Plan (CMP),
* Contract Delivery Follow-up,
* Work progress monitoring & control,  
* All projects executed must have a completion report (as constructed built reports and drawings). It is essential that Engineers or Foremen keep an up to date record of all project activities including all changes to the original design with reasons for this clearly indicated as well as the approving authority.
* Initial and Final Acceptance of the Works
* Contract Close Out
====2.3.7.2	Contract supervision and administration ====
During construction stage, it is necessary to consider the following;
* Each phase of the project implementation should be planned in detail using techniques such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) or Programme Evaluation or/and Review Technique (PERT ) to ensure time control,
* Work together with the Contractor to prepare a Quality Assurance Plan which shall narrate the scope of the works and the expected quality requirements for the project, the role of the participants in ensuring quality requirements are met
* Obtain a cash flow forecast from the contractor, and make the Client aware of his payment obligations based on the forecast
* Keep a close track of all contractors approved claims and adjust the contract price to reflect increase or decrease in the contract price
* Detailed information in procurement, contract management, contract supervision and administration is detailed well in chapter three and four of Volume III Construction Supervision for Water Supply and Sanitation Projects.

===2.3.8	Operation and Maintenance Stage===
   This process takes over after the project completion, it involves;
* Preparation of O&M Plan,
* Development of Individual Unit Plans for O&M,
* Plan for capacity Building of O&M Personnel,
* Plan for Providing Spares and Tools,
* Plan for Water Audit and Leakage Control,
* Plan for Efficient Use of Power,
* Plan for sound financial management system,
* Plan for Information Education Communication for Water and Sanitation Services,
* Reports and Record Keeping,
* Develop appropriate maintenance schedule and check lists,
* Utilize Standard Operating Procedures,
* Utilize Water Safety Plans.

Detailed information on planning for operation and maintenance is found in chapter three and four of Volume IV Operation and Maintenance of Water Supply and Sanitation Projects

===2.3.9	Performance Monitoring===
The aim of the project is to provide the services uninterrupted. To ensure this, a proper monitoring mechanism of the performance of the project should be prepared. Such a mechanism could include proper procedures for procurement and distribution of spare parts, fuel, replacement, a maintenance programme for the project including personnel at the village, District and if necessary at Regional and National levels also. Likewise a water quality surveillance procedure should be instituted in the framework of the existing mechanism.

==2.4	Consulting the Integrated Water Resources Management and Development (IWRMD) Plans==
It is imperative that during planning of the water supply and sanitation project, designer should consult the Integrated Water Resources Management and Development (IWRMD) plan for a basin where the project is planned to be executed. The development of an IWRMD Plan is a key objective of the water resources component of the Water Sector Development Programme 2006-2025. It is a legal requirement provided for in the Water Resources Management Act, No. 11 of 2009. The plan provides a blueprint for sustainable development and management of the basin’s water resources. 

Thus, a water supply and sanitation project designer is advised and encouraged to consult IWRMD plans as they provide:

* The status of water resource availability (both quantity and quality) in the basin,
* Water data and information necessary for the design of the projects,
* Framework for water allocations among its competing demands,
* Water demand for water related sectors,
* Stakeholders consultation plan.

===2.4.1	Status of Development and Implementation of IWRMD Plans===
By the time of development of this DCOM manual, IWRMD plans had been developed for six (6) out of the nine basins. The six basins are:
* Rufiji River Basin,
* Ruvuma and Southern Coast Basin,
* Lake Tanganyika Basin,
* Lake Nyasa Basin,
* Internal Drainage and
* Lake Rukwa Basin

It was reported that the development of IWRMD plans for Lake Victoria Basin and Wami/Ruvu basins were on-going. 

IWRMD plans implementation challenges have been observed in some basins. These include:

* Inadequate funding to implement plans recommendations,
* Some plans are not implementable because of including unrealistic recommendations,
* Some plans are considered to have been more of studies rather than plans,
* Inadequate human resources capacity to implement them,
* As required by EMA, ESIAs have not been conducted, contrary to the requirement

===2.4.2	Components of IWRMD Plans===
The developed IWRMD plans are expected to have the following main components:
* Component 1: Inventory and review of water availability, use and demand,
* Component 2: Institutional, Policy and legal framework,
* Component 3: Sector/Thematic Water Plans,
* Component 4: Integrated Water Resources Management and Development Plan, 
* Component 5: IWRMD Plan Implementation Strategy and Action Plan.

The production capacity of a source is very important in planning a water supply system. An estimate of the water that can be reliably produced by a water source like a well or spring gives the planner a basis to decide for or against its development. For the source(s) to be considered adequate, they must at least satisfy the maximum daily demand of the area to be served.

==2.5		Consult Guidelines for Preparation of Water Safety Plans - Resilient to Climate Change ==

Water Safety Plan (WSP) is the most effective means of consistently ensuring the safety of a drinking-water supply through the use of a comprehensive risk assessment and risk management approach that encompasses all steps in water supply from the catchment to the consumer (WHO, 2017). The approach enables the operators and managers of water utilities to know the system thoroughly, identify where and how problems could arise, put multiple barriers and management systems in place to stop the problems before they happen and making all parts of the system work properly so as to ensure the safety and acceptability of a drinking water supply intended for human consumption and other domestic uses as summarized in the WHO safe water chain frameworks.

Thus, during the planning phase, a designer should consult guidelines for the preparation of Water Safety Plans - Resilient to Climate Change, which has been prepared and published by Ministry of Water (MoW, 2015)

==2.6	Environmental and Social Impact Assessment Compliance==
Section 81 of the Environmental Management Act (Cap 191) requires all developers of projects identified in the 3rd Schedule of the Act and detailed in the 1st Schedule of the Environmental Management (Environmental Impact Assessment And Audit) (Amendment) Regulations, 2018, to undertake Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Section 82 of EMA (Cap 181) requires that the EIA be carried out prior to the commencement or financing of the project. Procedures for carrying out the EIA, identified under the EIA and Audit  (Amendment) Regulations of 2018 identify eight steps to be followed. According to EIA and Audit (Amendment) Regulations of 2018, projects are classified into the following categories, namely:

(a) “A” category for Mandatory projects;
 (b) “B1” category for Borderline Project;
(c) “B2” category for Non-Mandatory; and
(d) “Special Category

So it is imperative that a proponent and developer of any water supply and sanitation project categorizes their project prior to actual project implementation for the same.

===2.6.1	Procedures for Conducting ESIA in Tanzania===
Procedures for carrying out the ESIA, identified under the EIA and Audit (Amendment) Regulations of 2018 identify eight key steps to be followed in the EIA process in Tanzania. These are:

* Step 1: Registration,
* Step 2: Screening, 
* Step 3: Scoping,
* Step 4: Environmental Assessment,
* Step 5: Review,
* Step 6: Recommendations of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC),
* Step 7: Submission To The Minister For Environment,
* Step 8: Approval of the EIS.

It is recommended to consult NEMC guidelines and Environmental Management (Environmental Impact Assessment And Audit) (Amendment) Regulations, 2018 for more details. Also, the following Ministry of Water guidelines, accessible at have to be consulted.
a)	Guidelines of Good Environmental and Social Practices (GGESP) of July 2019,
b)	Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) of July 2019.

===2.6.2	Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA) Compliance===

Section 105 part (2) of the Environmental Act requires that wherever there is a major water project planned for construction, the Ministry responsible for water should conduct Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment. The strategic environmental assessment shall asses the area marked for development and include:

* Baseline environmental conditions and status of natural resources,
* Identification of ecological sensitive and protected areas,
* Identification and description of communities around the area,
* Existing social-economic conditions,
* Existing economic activities and infrastructure.
The strategic environmental and social assessment shall be submitted to the Minister responsible for Environment for approval before the planning process.


==2.7	Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply Projects==
It should be emphasized that immediately the project is conceived, hydrological, rainfall and other meteorological data collection must be initiated. In addition and given the long design life of such structures, consideration must be given to the possible impacts of climate change. Detailed account of predictions and impacts of climate change on water supply projects is provided in Appendix A.

URT (2019) has recommended strategies and plans to adapt risks from climate change. The design related strategies of infrastructure, which a designer should consider while planning for water supply projects include:

* Where possible, have at least two sources of supply at different locations. Build superstructures above high flood-line level.
* Adopt energy-efficiency programmes and, where possible, select facilities which require less power consumption.
* Monitor wells near coastlines to prevent salinization. If climate change causes sea levels to rise dramatically, even aquifers that have been sustainably utilized can suffer salinization.
* Utilize renewable energy sources.

Guidelines for resiliency to climate change for urban water supply utilities have been published by the Ministry of Water. 

==2.8	Participation of Community Based Water Supply Organizations (CBWSO) in Various Planning Stages==
As explained in detail in section 2.1 of this volume, the CBWSOs have to  be involved in the complete life cycle of the project including ensuring their sustainability during operation and maintenance of the projects under the overall coordination of WSSAs and RUWASA.

==2.9	References==
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Gebrechorkos, S. H., Hülsmann, S., & Bernhofer, C. (2019). Regional climate projections for impact assessment studies in East Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 14(4), 044031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab055a

Giannini, A., M. Biasutti, I. Held, and A. Sobel (2008). A global perspective on African climate. Clim. Change, 90: 359–383.

Hansingo, K., and C. Reason (2008). Modelling the atmospheric response to SST dipole patterns in the South Indian Ocean with a regional climate model. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 100: 37–52.

Hansingo, K., and C. Reason (2009). Modelling the atmospheric response over southern Africa to SST forcing in the southeast tropical Atlantic and southwest subtropical Indian Oceans. Int. J. Climatol., 29: 1001–1012.

Hermes, J., and C. Reason (2009). Variability in sea-surface temperature and winds in the tropical south-east Atlantic Ocean and regional rainfall relationships. Int. J. Climatol., 29: 11–21.

IPCC (2007). Summary for policymakers Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed M L Parry, O F Canziani, J P Palutikof, P J van der Linden and C E Hanson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) pp 7-22.

IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Summary for Policymakers, Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

Li, J., Chen, Y.D., Gan, T.Y., Lau, N. (2018). Elevated increases in human-perceived temperature under climate warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8: 43–47. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0036-2.

Marchant, R., C. Mumbi, S. Behera, and T. Yamagata (2007). The Indian Ocean dipole—the unsung driver of climatic variability in East Africa. Afr. J. Ecol., 45: 4–16.

Moss, R. H. et al. (2010). The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, Vol 463, 11 February 2010, doi:10.1038/nature08823.

Pohl, B., N. Fauchereau, C. Reason, and M. Rouault (2010). Relationships between the Antarctic Oscillation, the Madden - Julian Oscillation, and ENSO, and Consequences for Rainfall Analysis. J. Clim., 23: 238–254.

Rouault, M., P. Florenchie, N. Fauchereau, and C. Reason (2003). South East tropical Atlantic warm events and southern African rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, doi:10.1029/2002GL014840.

UNFCCC (2010). The Cancun Agreements. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change http://unfccc.int/meetings/cancunnov2010/meeting/6266.php, 2010.

URT (2019). Water sector development programme. Environmental and social management framework (ESMF). Revised version. Ministry of Water.

Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Sobolowski, S., Kjellström, E., Stegehuis, A., Watkiss, P., Mendlik. T., Landgren, O., Nikulin, G., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D. (2014). The European climate under a 2°C global warming. Environ. Res. Letters. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 034006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006.

Vigaud, N., Y. Richard, M. Rouault, and N. Fauchereau (2009). Moisture transport between the South Atlantic Ocean and southern Africa: Relationships with summer rainfall and associated dynamics. Clim. Dyn., 32: 113–123.

WHO (2017). Climate-resilient water safety plans: Managing health risks associated with climate variability and change. World Health Organization. ISBN: 978-92-4-151279-4. Retrieved from: https://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/publications/climate-resilient-water-safety-plans/en/

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